Mobile QR Code QR CODE : The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
Title An Analysis on the Change of Peak load time Considering the Forecasting of Electric Vehicle Charging Demand for Apartment Based on Monte Carlo Simulation
Authors 김치연(Chi-Yeon Kim) ; 김채린(Chae-Rin Kim) ; 조수환(Soo-Hwan Cho)
DOI https://doi.org/10.5370/KIEE.2020.70.1.021
Page pp.21-30
ISSN 1975-8359
Keywords Electric Vehicle(EV); EV charging demand forecast; Monte Carlo Simulation; Power demand pattern change; Peak load time change
Abstract The penetration of Electric Vehicles(EV) has been increasing worldwide recently to reduce greenhouse gases(GHG), and the government plans to supply about 3 million EV until 2030. The EV charging pattern is determined by the ToU(Time-of-Use) tariff, and is mainly charged from 18:00 to 23:00, which is the middle load period. The EV charging demand will further increase the power demand for apartments, which surges after 18:00 after returning home, so it is necessary to accurately forecast the EV charging demand pattern. In this paper, we determine the probability variables of input data such as SoC(State-of-Charge), charging start time, and charging method of EV users to forecast the EV charging demand pattern based on Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, the changes in the power demand patterns of the apartment according to the EV charging demand patterns are estimated using the actual data of the apartment power demand pattern. Furthermore, we estimate changes in the pattern of power demand and changes in the peak load time according to the ratio of EVs per household of apartments nationwide.